Should I Buy an EV Now or Wait? The Australian Case for Each (Late 2026)

Should I buy an EV now or wait? For most Australian buyers in late 2026, the answer is to buy now if your current car is costing you money or you need a second car. Wait only if a specific model you want hasn’t arrived yet, or you’re buying above $75,000 on a novated lease and can lock in before April 2027. Waiting for prices to fall in general is a weak reason on its own, because the market already moved a long way in 2026 and petrol costs you money every week you hold out.

The question keeps coming up for good reason. Prices are falling, new models land every month, and the tax rules for novated leases are changing. Every new EV owner also hears the same line from someone: the EV you buy today is the worst one you’ll ever own. That’s true. It was true of phones and TVs too, and people still buy them.

Battery-electric cars took 24.2 percent of new-car sales in September 2026, and 18.9 percent of the year to date, up from 8.1 percent at the same point in 2025 (VFACTS and Electric Vehicle Council data, reported by CarExpert in October 2026). This guide works through the five things that decide whether waiting makes sense for you. Prices are as of October 2026 and before on-road costs (ORC) unless marked drive-away (d/a).

Should I buy an EV now or wait? A quick decision table

Match your situation to the row below. If two rows apply, the one higher up usually wins.

Your situation	What to do	Why
Your current car needs expensive repairs or you’re down a car	Buy now	Every month of waiting costs fuel and repairs
Novated lease on an EV over $75,000	Buy before 1 April 2027	That’s when the full FBT exemption stops for dearer EVs
Novated lease on an EV under $75,000	No rush on tax grounds	Full exemption kept until 1 April 2029
You want a model that isn’t here yet (wagon, big seven-seater)	Wait for it	Nothing on sale fills the gap
You’re holding out for an overseas update with no Australian date	Buy what’s here, or set a deadline	Local timing can slip by a year or more
Your car is paid off, reliable and cheap to run	Waiting is fine	You lose little by holding on
You’re worried about resale value	Consider a used or demo EV	Someone else takes the first big drop

Prices: they’re falling, but don’t bank on more

EV prices in Australia fell hard in 2026 and are still moving, so a buyer who waits may save money. They may also miss a deal that won’t come back. Look at what happened in about six weeks:

• Tesla Model 3: a new entry-level RWD went on sale on 1 October 2026 at $45,900, $9,000 under the Premium RWD. Our Tesla Model 3 review explains what it gives up.
• BYD: a $4,000 cashback on the Seal 6, Sealion 5, 6, 7 and 8, and Shark 6, for cars ordered by 21 December and delivered by 31 December 2026. The BYD Atto 1 Essential dropped to $19,990 drive-away in September.
• Nissan Ariya: the Engage fell to $42,990 drive-away for October purchases, $7,000 below its July offer.
• Hyundai: discounted the Inster to $35,990 drive-away and cancelled the planned IONIQ 3 because the numbers didn’t work against cheaper rivals.

Rival brands react fast. When one big brand cuts a price, others often answer within days with a cashback or free on-roads. Some of those “new” deals are rollovers of last quarter’s offer, though, and paying the drive-away fees can be worth more than a headline cashback. Compare the drive-away figure, not the advertised discount.

What’s pushing prices down? Partly competition from new Chinese brands, and partly the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES). The NVES is a federal rule that sets an average CO2 limit for each brand’s new cars, tightening every year to 2029. Brands that sell too many high-emission cars build up penalties, so they have a reason to sell more EVs, as the Department of Infrastructure’s NVES page sets out. Credits and penalties started accruing on 1 July 2025. In the first results, covering July to December 2025, 19 of 59 brands missed their target, according to CarExpert.

That pressure won’t go away, but it doesn’t guarantee a cut on the car you want. Most of the end-of-year offers above expire in December. If a deal on a car you already like is live now, it’s a real saving. A cut you’re hoping for in March isn’t.

The 2027 FBT change: the deadline that actually matters

For novated lease buyers, the only hard deadline is 1 April 2027, and it only bites on EVs over $75,000. The fringe benefits tax (FBT) exemption is the rule that removes FBT on eligible electric cars provided through salary packaging, and it’s the main reason many people lease an EV through their employer.

In the May 2026 Budget the government proposed winding it back in stages (Treasury, 5 May 2026):

Period	EV priced $75,000 or less	EV over $75,000 (under the LCT threshold)
Now to 31 March 2027	Full exemption	Full exemption
1 April 2027 to 31 March 2029	Full exemption	25% discount on FBT
From 1 April 2029	25% discount on FBT	25% discount on FBT

Existing leases are not affected, according to the Treasury release. The upper limit is still the luxury car tax threshold for fuel-efficient cars, $91,661 in 2026-27, as described on the ATO’s electric car exemption page.

Three things to know before you act on this:

1. It’s not law yet. Treasury’s consultation on the draft closed in September 2026, and as of October no bill has passed.
2. “Existing lease” may be narrow. Accounting firm Grant Thornton reads the draft as treating a refinance or a change of employer as a new arrangement. If you might change jobs, read our guide on what happens to a novated lease when you change jobs.
3. Under $75,000, there’s no rush. Most popular EVs, from the Model 3 to the BYD Atto 3 Evo, sit well under $75,000, so the 2027 date doesn’t affect them.

Our EV FBT exemption explainer covers how the exemption works, and the FBT savings calculator shows what it’s worth on your salary. Don’t rely on a lease provider’s “savings” figure alone. Those calculators often compare against a costly petrol car you’d never have bought.

Resale value: why waiting partly works

EVs have lost value faster than petrol cars, so a buyer who waits a year and buys used can come out ahead. Cars from 2021 kept 48.9 percent of their original price after five years, against about 80 percent for the market overall, according to AADA and AutoGrab data from February 2026.

The picture improved in 2026. Rising fuel prices pushed buyers toward used EVs, and used EV sales rose 54 percent in the first half of the year, according to the Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA). In May 2026, one-to-five-year-old EVs kept 74.7 percent of their value on average, against 83.9 percent for plug-in hybrids and 94.3 percent for hybrids (AADA and AutoGrab, via EV Central).

Two things follow from that. If you buy new, plan to keep the car a long time, ideally six years or more, so the early drop matters less. And if resale worries you, a one-year-old or demo EV lets someone else take the first hit. Our guides to EV depreciation and buying a demo EV go further.

Waiting for the next model

Should I buy an EV now or wait for the next model? Only wait when the new model fills a gap and has a firm local date. The trap is waiting for an overseas update that hasn’t been confirmed here.

Take the Geely EX5. The 2027 version in China adds a rear-wheel-drive option, 800-volt fast charging and conventional door handles, which fixes several things buyers complain about. But CarExpert reported on 5 October 2026 that Geely Australia’s timing is still to be decided. Waiting six to eight months for a car with no date can turn into a year. Meanwhile the BYD Atto 3 Evo already offers rear-wheel drive, 800-volt charging and regular handles in its $46,990 Premium grade.

Door handles come up often. China’s new safety standard, GB 48001-2026, requires a mechanical release on every door for new models approved from 1 January 2027, and for all models by 1 January 2029. It doesn’t ban flush handles, only handles that work electrically alone. Australia has no equivalent rule, although ANCAP has called for one. Cars sold here will change as their Chinese-built versions get updated.

Delivery times are worth factoring in too. Popular models can take weeks or months to arrive, so start test drives early if you need a car by a certain date. Our list of upcoming electric cars in Australia shows which models are confirmed, which are delayed and which aren’t coming at all.

The cost of waiting: fuel and servicing

Waiting isn’t free. The national average price of unleaded petrol was 240.5 cents a litre in the week to 11 October 2026, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP).

Here’s a rough comparison for a car doing 12,000 km a year. It assumes a petrol car using 7 litres per 100 km and an EV using 15 kWh per 100 km charged at home at 30 cents per kWh, an illustrative rate rather than a quote:

	Petrol car (7 L/100 km)	EV at home (15 kWh/100 km)
Energy cost per 100 km	$16.84	$4.50
Energy cost per year (12,000 km)	$2,020	$540
Difference per year		About $1,480

Waiting six months on those numbers costs roughly $740 in fuel alone, before servicing. EVs still need tyres, brakes, cabin filters and coolant checks, but they skip oil changes and most engine wear. If you can charge on solar or an overnight EV plan, the gap is wider. Our EV charging cost calculator runs it with your own rate.

You may not need a wall charger to start. For 200 km or so a week, a standard 10-amp portable charger overnight is often enough, especially with solar. Our granny charger vs wall charger guide explains when a wallbox is worth paying for.

The flip side: if your current car is paid off, reliable, and does few kilometres, the savings are smaller and waiting costs little. That’s when the accountant’s rule of running a car until it’s done still holds.

Waiting for better batteries

Waiting for a battery breakthrough rarely pays off for a car you need in the next year or two. Sodium-ion cells and megawatt-level “flash” charging are real, and both are on sale in China. Neither is in a car confirmed for Australia yet.

Meanwhile, the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in most affordable EVs here are already durable. LFP is a battery chemistry that trades a little energy density for longer life and better heat tolerance, and most brands cover these packs for eight years. If you want to understand how they age in Australian heat, read our guide to EV battery care.

Four checks before you sign or hold off

Whichever way you lean, these checks stop you making the decision on a hunch. For anyone asking “should I buy an EV now or wait”, the worst option is waiting with no end date.

1. Set a deadline. Pick the month you’ll decide by, and stick to it even if a new model is rumoured.
2. Price the waiting. Add up what your current car will cost in fuel, servicing and repairs until then.
3. Check the offer end dates. Many current EV deals end in December 2026, and novated buyers over $75,000 face 1 April 2027.
4. Test drive your top two. Do it on roads you know, and take an overnight loan if the dealer offers one. Plenty of buyers change their minds about a car once it’s parked in their own driveway.

Start your shortlist on our electric vehicles hub, then put two or three cars side by side in the EV compare tool.