Best Time to Buy Solar Panels in Australia (2026)

The short answer: if you are going to buy solar, sooner is better than later. The federal rebate shrinks every year by a fixed amount and disappears entirely in 2031. Panel prices are not dropping fast enough to compensate. Every year you wait, you pay more for the same system and miss a year of electricity savings.

But “sooner is better” does not mean “rush into the first quote.” There are specific situations where waiting makes sense. This guide covers both.

The STC countdown — how the rebate shrinks

The so-called “solar rebate” is actually a discount created by Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs). When you install solar, your system generates STCs based on its expected output over the remaining deeming period of the scheme. The installer claims these certificates and passes the value to you as an upfront discount on the price.

The critical detail: the deeming period reduces by one year on 1 January each year, and the entire scheme ends on 1 January 2031.

Year-by-year STC countdown for a 6.6 kW system (Zone 3)

Install year	Deeming years	Approx. STCs	Value at $38/STC	Discount lost vs 2026
2026	5	~63	$2,394	—
2027	4	~50	$1,900	-$494
2028	3	~38	$1,444	-$950
2029	2	~25	$950	-$1,444
2030	1	~13	$494	-$1,900
2031+	0	0	$0	-$2,394

Every year you delay, the rebate on a 6.6 kW system drops by roughly $450–$500.

For larger systems, the loss is proportionally greater. A 10 kW commercial system loses approximately $700–$750 per year in STC value. For a 13.3 kW system (the largest common residential size), the annual loss is roughly $900–$1,000.

The STC spot price fluctuates but has traded in the $36–$40 range throughout 2025-2026. The CER clearing house supports a ceiling of $40. For exact STC calculations for your postcode and system size, use our STC calculator.

For a full explanation of how STCs work, see our solar rebate guide.

---

What waiting one year actually costs

The STC reduction is only part of the cost of waiting. You also miss a full year of electricity savings.

Worked example: 6.6 kW system in Sydney, installed 2026 vs 2027

System cost (before rebate): $7,500

	Install 2026	Install 2027
STC discount	$2,394	$1,900
Net system cost	$5,106	$5,600
Year 1 electricity savings	$1,500	$0 (not installed yet)
Total benefit by end of 2027	$1,500 saved + system owned at $5,106	System owned at $5,600

By installing in 2026 instead of 2027, you are $1,994 better off by the end of 2027:

• $494 from the higher STC rebate
• $1,500 from a year of electricity savings you would have missed

Over a 25-year panel lifespan, a one-year delay is a small percentage of total returns. But it is still a $2,000 loss that compounds — because that $1,500 in annual savings repeats every year for 25 years. The sooner you install, the sooner the savings start accumulating.

---

Feed-in tariffs are declining too

Feed-in tariffs — the rate your retailer pays you for exported solar electricity — have been declining across Australia for years.

State	Typical FiT range (2026)	Trend
QLD	5–7 c/kWh	Flat to declining
NSW	4–7 c/kWh	Declining
VIC	3–5 c/kWh	Declining (effectively 0 daytime in some areas)
SA	4–7 c/kWh	Declining
WA	2.25 c/kWh (Synergy DEBS)	Fixed, very low
TAS	7–9 c/kWh	Highest, but declining
ACT	4–8 c/kWh	Declining

Declining FiTs do not destroy the solar business case — most savings come from self-consumption (avoiding grid electricity at 25–35 c/kWh), not from exports. But lower FiTs mean the total return is slightly lower each year you wait.

For detailed export limit and FiT information by state, see our solar export limits guide.

---

Are panel prices dropping enough to offset?

This is the question people ask to justify waiting: “Won’t panels be cheaper next year?”

Global panel prices

Global solar panel prices dropped dramatically in 2023-2024, driven by massive manufacturing overcapacity in China. Wholesale panel prices fell below US$0.10/W — historically unprecedented.

Australian installed prices

Australian installed costs have not dropped proportionally. The reason is simple: the panel itself is only about 20–30% of the installed cost of a residential system. The rest is:

Component	Share of installed cost
Solar panels	20–30%
Inverter	10–15%
Mounting, cabling, switchboard work	15–20%
Labour (installation)	25–35%
Design, permits, admin, margin	10–15%

Labour is the largest single cost component, and labour costs in Australia are not declining. If panel prices dropped another 20%, the installed system price would fall by only 4–6%.

The maths: A 6.6 kW system at $7,500 installed might drop to $7,200 next year (a $300 saving from cheaper panels). Meanwhile, you lose $494 in STC rebate and $1,500 in electricity savings. Waiting costs you $1,694 net.

The exception would be a genuine technology step-change that dramatically reduces installed costs. This is not on the near-term horizon. Current panel efficiency gains (21% → 23%) are incremental and do not change the economics meaningfully.

---

Best time of year to install

While the year you install matters (STC countdown), the month matters less for financial returns — solar panels generate electricity year-round. However, timing affects the installation experience:

Best months: March–May and August–October

• Lower demand on installers — shorter wait times from quote to installation
• Installers are less rushed and can give more attention to design and quality
• You still capture summer generation in the first year (if installing in autumn) or the next summer (if installing in spring)

Worst months: November–February

• Peak demand. Electricity bills arrive in summer, homeowners panic, and every installer is booked out.
• Wait times of 4–8 weeks are common. Some installers cut corners to clear backlogs.
• Ironically, panels installed in February miss the peak summer generation of December-January.

It does not matter for output

A common myth is that you should “wait until summer to install solar.” This makes no sense. If you install in June, you capture winter generation immediately and then get the full benefit of the following summer. If you install in December, you missed the chance to generate in the preceding months.

The best month to install solar is the month you get a good quote from a quality installer. Do not delay an installation from autumn to summer — you will lose months of generation and face a busier, more expensive market.

---

When it genuinely makes sense to wait

Not everyone should rush to install. These are the situations where waiting is the right call:

Your roof needs replacing in the next 1–3 years

Removing and reinstalling solar panels costs $1,000–$2,000 depending on system size. If your roof is nearing end-of-life, replace the roof first, then install solar on the new roof. The cost of the STC reduction and lost savings (maybe $2,000–$4,000 over 2 years) is comparable to the cost of removing and reinstalling panels — so it roughly washes out.

You are building or renovating

If a new build or major renovation is planned within 12 months, wait. Solar can be designed into the build, roof orientation can be optimised, and the electrical work can be included in the build cost. Some builders offer solar as part of the package at competitive rates.

Your switchboard or meter needs upgrading

Older homes may need a switchboard upgrade ($1,000–$2,000) or a meter change (usually free from the DNSP, but takes time to schedule) before solar can be connected. A good installer will identify this during the quote process. This is not a reason to delay indefinitely — it is a reason to get a quote now so the upgrades can be scheduled.

You are selling the property soon

Solar adds value to a property, but not always dollar-for-dollar. If you are planning to sell within 12 months, the payback may not fully materialise before settlement. However, studies consistently show that solar adds $15,000–$20,000 to property value on average — typically more than the installed cost. Get an agent’s opinion for your specific market.

You have significant shading that may change

If a neighbour’s tree is shading your roof and the council has approved removal, or if a nearby building is being demolished, waiting 6–12 months may give you a significantly better-performing system. See our inverter comparison guide for shade mitigation options.

---

Battery timing — now or later?

Solar and batteries are related but separate financial decisions. Here is the current state:

The case for solar now, battery later

• Solar delivers strong returns on its own (3–6 year payback in most of Australia)
• Battery payback periods are still 8–15 years in most situations without rebates
• Battery technology and pricing are improving faster than solar
• The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program provides up to $4,000 per household — check current availability
• State battery rebates are available in some jurisdictions (see our solar battery rebate guide)

Make your system battery-ready

If you install solar now and plan to add a battery later, ensure:

• Your inverter is hybrid (has a battery connection port) or you choose a brand with a compatible AC-coupled battery option
• Your switchboard has space for a battery connection
• Your installer runs the necessary cabling during the solar installation

The cost difference between a standard string inverter and a hybrid inverter is typically $500–$1,000. This is worth paying even if you do not add a battery for several years.

For battery sizing and economics, see our solar battery sizing guide or use our battery ROI calculator.

---

The 10 kW question — oversizing while the rebate is higher

If you have the roof space and budget, there is a strong case for installing a larger system now rather than a smaller system now and expanding later.

STCs are proportional to system size. A 10 kW system in Zone 3 creates roughly 95 STCs in 2026 ($3,610 in rebate). In 2028, the same system would create roughly 57 STCs ($2,166). That is a $1,444 difference — nearly enough to cover the cost of the extra panels.

Adding panels to an existing system later (a “solar extension”) is possible but comes with complications:

• The new panels may need a separate inverter or optimisers to match the existing system
• A second grid connection application may be required
• Installation costs per panel are higher for small additions than for a single larger install
• You may trigger new export limit assessments from your DNSP

For how oversizing interacts with export limits, see our solar export limits guide.

The general principle: install the largest system your roof and budget allow in a single installation. The STC rebate, installation efficiency, and avoided future complications all favour going bigger the first time.

---

State-specific timing considerations

Victoria

The Solar Homes Program provides an additional rebate (currently up to $1,400) on top of federal STCs. This program has been running since 2019 and has periodically run out of spots or reduced the rebate amount. If you are in Victoria and eligible, check current availability — these spots have historically been filled quickly. See our Victoria solar rebate guide.

New South Wales

NSW has no state solar panel rebate beyond STCs. The Empowering Homes program provides interest-free loans for solar-battery systems but is not a rebate. The STC countdown is the primary timing driver. See our NSW solar rebate guide.

Queensland

No state solar rebate. QLD benefits from higher solar irradiance (more STCs per kW in Zone 2 and 3 postcodes) and relatively high self-consumption savings. The STC countdown applies equally.

South Australia

SA Power Networks has historically imposed restrictive export limits (1.5 kW default on single-phase). Dynamic exports are now available, which has improved the case for larger systems. No additional state solar rebate beyond STCs.

Western Australia

Synergy’s DEBS feed-in tariff is very low (2.25 c/kWh). Solar economics in WA rely almost entirely on self-consumption. The STC countdown still applies, but the case for oversizing is weaker because excess generation earns very little.

---

The bottom line

The financial case for solar in Australia is strong today and gets incrementally weaker each year as the STC rebate declines. Each year of delay on a 6.6 kW system costs roughly $2,000 when you combine the lost STC value and the missed year of electricity savings.

Panel prices are not falling fast enough to offset this. Technology improvements are incremental. Feed-in tariffs are flat or declining.

The best time to install solar was last year. The second-best time is now. The worst time is “next year, when it’ll be cheaper” — because it won’t be.

What to do now:

1. Get 3 quotes from CEC-accredited installers (use Solar Quotes or Energy Matters for comparison)
2. Size for your current and future needs — use our sizing guide
3. Choose a hybrid inverter if you may want a battery later
4. Check your state rebates and any additional incentives
5. Install in autumn or spring for the best installer availability
6. Calculate your expected STCs with our STC calculator

For system cost estimates, see our solar panel cost guide. For whether solar is right for your situation, see is solar worth it in Australia.